UPDATE: In a surprise move that is shaking up California’s political landscape, Sen. Mike McGuire officially announced his candidacy for Congress on November 2, 2023. This pivotal decision follows new congressional mapping that could significantly benefit his campaign.
McGuire, currently the president pro tem of the California Senate, is barred from seeking another term due to term limits expiring in December 2026. His original plan was to run for insurance commissioner, but the recent success of Proposition 50 has opened the door to a congressional seat that many see as tailor-made for him.
The new congressional district, District 1, centers around Santa Rosa and extends through Mendocino County, encompassing parts of the Sacramento Valley up to the Nevada border. Political analysts are already labeling McGuire as the “instant favorite” for this district, particularly given his established presence in the region.
Political expert David McCuan stated, “McGuire is positioned to take advantage of these changes, which shift the political dynamics significantly.” The implications of term limits, first set in place in California in 1990, are now being felt, with more than half of the Legislature expected to be vacated by 2026.
As McGuire gears up for his congressional run, the political fallout has prompted immediate reactions among Marin County representatives. Damon Connolly, currently serving as the District 12 Assemblyman, has declared his candidacy for McGuire’s Senate seat. Connolly’s previous experience includes serving on the Marin County Board of Supervisors and winning a tight Assembly race in 2022.
The race for the District 12 Assembly seat is rapidly intensifying, with a slew of candidates emerging. Notable contenders include Eric Lucan, Eli Beckman, Holli Thier, and Steve Schwartz. The latest entries, Jackie Elward and Eryn Cervantes, both previously ran unsuccessfully for the same seat. Cervantes stands out as the sole Republican in the mix.
As of late June, Lucan is leading the fundraising race with over $222,000 in contributions, followed closely by Thier and Beckman with $183,000 and $162,000, respectively. Connolly has also amassed significant funds, reporting over $196,000 for his Senate campaign.
Connolly remarked, “It’s a strong field, and I appreciate the energy everyone is bringing to the campaign,” highlighting the competitive nature of the upcoming elections.
The stakes are high as candidates prepare for an unprecedented fundraising push as the year closes. Lucan expressed expectations for a surge in activity, stating, “There will be a rush towards the end of the year with a final fundraising push,” setting the stage for a heated race leading up to the primaries in June.
As the political landscape continues to shift, all eyes will be on the developments in both the congressional and Assembly races. With McGuire’s announcement, the urgency for candidates to solidify their positions has never been greater. Expect further updates as this story unfolds.
