The NFL Conference Championships are set to showcase players trending toward increased target shares, according to insights from Pro Football Focus (PFF). Utilizing an XGBOOST model and extensive route-level data, PFF has developed metrics that predict where targets are likely to go during games. These metrics, including Share of Predicted Targets and Share of Predicted Air Yards, offer a clearer picture of player performance and potential.
In the recent Divisional Round, several players demonstrated significant target shares. Courtland Sutton of the Denver Broncos received nine targets, translating to a 22.5% target share. Meanwhile, Jauan Jennings and Colby Parkinson also saw notable opportunities with 19.23% and 17.5% target shares, respectively. Despite being limited to just 13 snaps, Troy Franklin did not receive any targets due to injury.
The data suggests that players who were open more often than they were targeted in the Divisional Round tend to see an uptick in targets per route run in subsequent games. This trend could lead to breakout performances during the Conference Championship games.
Top Predicted Contributors for the Conference Championships
The predicted Expected Points Added (EPA) model reveals potential contributors who may have impacted their teams significantly, regardless of whether they were targeted. Leading all receivers was Jayden Higgins, who achieved a predicted EPA of 4.02 from the Houston Texans’ matchup against the New England Patriots. His contribution included 59 receiving yards, although he only realized 27% of his potential EPA.
In another key performance, Sutton played a pivotal role in the Broncos’ victory over the Buffalo Bills. After both Franklin and Pat Bryant left the game early, Sutton stepped up, helping secure a crucial win for his team. Without his contributions, the outcome may have favored the Bills.
Missed Opportunities and Impactful Plays
The Divisional Round also highlighted critical missed opportunities for several players. In a tense moment during the Los Angeles Rams’ game against the Chicago Bears, wide receiver Puka Nacua ran an effective post-seam route but ultimately did not capitalize on the chance to score, resulting in a negative EPA of -0.38. Despite this, his predicted EPA was the highest of the weekend at 1.94, indicating his potential impact had he received the ball.
Similarly, Higgins was in a prime position during a first-quarter third-and-6 scenario. With a clean pocket provided by quarterback C.J. Stroud, Higgins was open for a touchdown that could have tied the game. Instead, Stroud held onto the ball too long, resulting in an incomplete pass. This decision cost the Texans a potential four points, which could have influenced the game’s dynamics significantly.
As the Conference Championships approach, the focus will be on these players and their potential to capitalize on the opportunities presented to them. Coaches and fans alike will be eager to see if the data-driven insights translate into impactful performances on the field.
