KANSAS CITY, Mo. — The Kansas City Chiefs, with a record of 6-7, are still 5.5-point favorites against the 9-4 Los Angeles Chargers for their upcoming game on December 10, 2023. This decision has raised questions among fans and analysts, given the Chiefs’ recent performance, which includes four losses out of their last five games.
According to Johnny Avello, the director of sports operations at DraftKings, the Chiefs are still considered a strong team despite their current struggles. “The Chiefs are still a very good team,” Avello stated in an interview with The Athletic. He acknowledged that the team’s record may not reflect its capabilities, as they have faced challenges such as penalties, dropped passes, and difficulties in closing out games.
Avello emphasized that the Chiefs’ power rating, which is a key metric for oddsmakers, remains high. “We still view them as a highly ranked team,” he noted, identifying only a few teams—namely the Los Angeles Rams and Green Bay Packers—that would be favored over the Chiefs on a neutral field. This perspective is rooted in the team’s offensive and defensive production, as well as coaching and other intangible factors.
Power Ratings and Betting Trends
Even with their sub-.500 record, Avello explained that the Chiefs have maintained a strong position in the betting landscape. As part of the analysis, he takes into account home-field advantage, which adds approximately 2.5 points to the spread when games are played at Arrowhead Stadium.
The betting community appears to have confidence in Kansas City, with 90 percent of spread bets and 80 percent of moneyline wagers backing the Chiefs at DraftKings. This trend suggests that public perception still favors the Chiefs, despite their recent inconsistencies.
John Ewing, head of public relations at BetMGM, echoed similar sentiments, stating, “They are better than their record indicates.” He noted that as long as the Chiefs remain in playoff contention, they are likely to be favored in their remaining games.
Avello initially set the spread for the Chargers at 5.5 points, a figure that has not changed during the week leading up to the game. He explained that his methodology involves comparing both teams’ power ratings and then adjusting for various factors, including injuries and coaching.
Future Implications for the Chiefs
The Chiefs’ current predicament has raised the stakes for their remaining schedule. Avello highlighted that if Kansas City manages to win its final four games, they would not be considered underdogs in any potential AFC playoff matchup. This scenario could lead to competitive games against teams like New England, Denver, or Buffalo, where they would have at least a 50-50 chance of victory.
“There’s no question that if they get in, they’ll be dangerous,” Avello remarked. He pointed out that the narrow losses the team has experienced could easily have swung in their favor, transforming their current standing.
Ultimately, the Chiefs must address their struggles in critical moments on the field. “You’ve got to win the games out on the field, and that’s just not happening,” Avello said, acknowledging the unusual situation for a team known for its competitive edge. As the Chiefs prepare to face the Chargers, the upcoming weeks promise to be pivotal in determining their playoff fate and the future of their season.
