UPDATE: New reports confirm that mass killings in the United States have declined significantly in 2025, marking the lowest number recorded since 2006. However, experts warn that this drop may not indicate a lasting trend toward safety and could simply be a return to typical levels.
A horrific shooting at a children’s birthday party in California last weekend left four dead, bringing the total number of mass killings in the U.S. this year to 17. This figure represents a 24% decrease compared to 2024, according to a database maintained by the Associated Press and USA Today in partnership with Northeastern University.
Despite the drop, experts stress that this might not signify a permanent decrease in violence. Criminologist James Alan Fox explains that the current decline is likely a “regression to the mean,” a statistical phenomenon following an unusual spike in mass killings observed in 2018 and 2019.
“Will 2026 see a decline? I wouldn’t bet on it. What goes down must also go back up,” said Fox.
Mass killings, defined as incidents where four or more people are killed within a 24-hour period (not including the perpetrator), remain volatile due to their rarity. Professor James Densley from Metropolitan State University emphasizes that even minor fluctuations in these numbers can create the illusion of significant changes in trends.
“Because there are only a few dozen mass killings each year, a small change could look like a wave or a collapse, when it’s really just a return to typical levels,” Densley stated. “2025 looks really good in historical context, but we can’t pretend like that means the problem is gone for good.”
Some contributing factors to the decline might include an overall reduction in homicide and violent crime rates, which had spiked during the COVID-19 pandemic. Improvements in the response to mass shootings may also play a role, as seen in recent incidents where quick medical assistance significantly reduced fatalities.
The mass shooting at a school in Minnesota earlier this year, which resulted in two deaths but over twenty injuries, illustrates the importance of effective trauma response. Densley noted that the reason only two casualties occurred was due to prompt medical attention.
Despite these positive indicators, experts caution against complacency. Eric Madfis, a professor at the University of Washington-Tacoma, points out that gun violence remains a complex issue influenced by multiple factors. “It’s multicausal. It’s never going to be just one thing. While gun violence deaths may be down, we still experience exceedingly high rates compared to other countries,” he remarked.
Moreover, Madfis highlighted that recent legislative efforts, such as the Safer Communities Act, have allocated millions to gun violence prevention programs, which may help address the issue more comprehensively. However, none of the mass killings in 2025 occurred in schools, indicating a shift in the locations of such tragedies.
Investigators continue to analyze the grim statistics surrounding mass shootings, noting that approximately 82% of this year’s incidents involved firearms. Since 2006, over 3,234 people have died in mass killings, with 81% of those fatalities resulting from gunfire.
As America grapples with these troubling figures, experts urge policymakers and the public to view mass killings as just one facet of a broader issue of gun violence. Emma Fridel, a criminology professor at Florida State University, warns that focusing solely on mass killings risks overlooking the larger crisis of gun violence, which claims as many lives annually as the casualties from the Korean War. “The number one cause of death for children is guns,” she emphasized.
The urgent need for a comprehensive strategy to combat gun violence remains as relevant as ever. As authorities continue to monitor these trends, the public is left to wonder: Are safer days truly ahead, or is this merely a temporary reprieve?
