UPDATE: Honolulu braces for a significant rainy spell, with the National Weather Service issuing urgent advisories for both mariners and aviators. Residents can expect typical trade wind showers starting Saturday and continuing into early next week as a weather front dissipates west of Kauai.
Forecasts indicate a gradual strengthening of southeasterly winds today, pushing showers toward the east and southeast slopes of the islands. Although trade winds will ease slightly and shift out of the east, the forecast shows pockets of moisture that could enhance rainfall, particularly in windward and mauka areas.
Officials note that no significant sources of moisture have been detected, leading to uncertainty in rainfall predictions as models diverge, particularly by mid-week. Aviation alerts warn of potential moderate turbulence and low-level wind shear affecting PHOG this afternoon, even as VFR conditions are generally expected.
For mariners, a Small Craft Advisory is currently in effect until early Saturday for Maui County and Big Island waters, with forecasts predicting combined seas exceeding 10 feet due to a moderate to large northwest swell. These conditions may prompt a High Surf Advisory along northern and western shores, raising concerns about ocean safety.
As peak monthly tides coincide with the incoming swell, minor coastal flooding is expected during early morning high tides. Additionally, the east shore surf will become choppier as trade winds strengthen later in the week. Despite these advisories, the National Weather Service reports that critical fire weather conditions are unlikely in Honolulu this week, with relative humidity levels near seasonal norms.
Authorities are closely monitoring the evolving weather patterns, as forecasts may change. Residents are urged to stay informed and take necessary precautions, particularly those involved in marine and aviation activities. The situation remains dynamic, and updates will follow as more data becomes available.
