UPDATE: Retailers are bracing for a critical Black Friday as consumer confidence in the U.S. economy falters. This year’s shopping event kicks off on November 24, 2023, following a month of declining optimism due to the recent federal government shutdown and ongoing inflation concerns.
Despite a decrease in consumer confidence, Black Friday remains the unofficial launch of the holiday shopping season. Many retailers are hoping for a surge in foot traffic, particularly as online shopping continues to dominate trends ahead of the big day.
Recent reports from The Conference Board reveal that consumers are becoming increasingly discerning, focusing on deals while still willing to spend on significant occasions. Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank, stated, “Consumers have been saying the economy is terrible while continuing to spend for years now, so the outlook is probably better than they are telling us.” However, he cautioned that shoppers are being more selective and price-sensitive.
As retailers prepared for the holiday season earlier this year, many faced challenges from President Donald Trump’s tariffs on imported goods. Reports indicate that 40% of general merchandise sold in September experienced price hikes of at least 5%. Notably, 83% of toys sold that month saw similar increases, as the majority of these products are imported from China.
Despite these hurdles, optimism is building as foot traffic at the Mall of America in Bloomington, Minnesota, has surpassed pre-pandemic levels. Jill Renslow, the mall’s chief business development and marketing officer, reported, “We’re seeing a very positive start to the holiday season. The last few Saturdays in November have been very strong.”
Online shopping is also thriving. From November 1 to November 23, U.S. consumers spent an impressive $79.7 billion, marking a 7.5% increase from last year and exceeding forecasts.
According to Mastercard SpendingPulse, holiday sales are projected to rise by 3.6% from November 1 to December 24, slightly down from last year’s 4.1% increase. Mastercard’s Chief Economist, Michelle Meyer, noted, “Clearly, there’s uncertainty. But at the moment, it doesn’t seem like it’s changing how they are showing up for this season.”
For consumers looking for the best deals, Thanksgiving Day is expected to offer significant discounts on sporting goods, while Black Friday will be prime for purchasing TVs, toys, and appliances. Cyber Monday is anticipated to deliver the best apparel and computer discounts, with apparel expected to see markdowns of up to 25% off.
As the countdown to Black Friday intensifies, retailers are eager to see how consumer spending behaviors will evolve. The implications of this shopping season may set the tone for the entire holiday period, making it essential for both consumers and retailers to stay tuned for the latest developments.
