As the pressure mounts on Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro from the United States, experts caution that his potential ousting may lead to a power vacuum that could be exploited by criminal organizations and armed groups. This scenario could create a situation that is even more perilous than the current regime.
The current U.S. administration has intensified its efforts against Maduro, but analysts warn that his departure could precipitate a shift towards a successor who may be “even worse” than the dictator himself. Observers believe that the landscape could become dominated by drug cartels, guerrilla factions, and armed warlords, some of whom have established strongholds across Venezuela for decades.
Venezuela is increasingly characterized as a fragmented landscape where criminal entities operate rather than a centralized dictatorship. According to experts, U.S. policy must now contend with not only Maduro but also an entrenched network of non-state armed groups that could seize control in a post-Maduro environment.
Potential Risks in a Post-Maduro Venezuela
Roxanna Vigil, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and former U.S. national security official focused on Latin America, emphasized that the outcome of U.S. actions will heavily influence Venezuela’s future. “What comes next will largely depend on what direction this U.S. pressure campaign goes in,” Vigil stated. She warned that escalated conflict could lead to diminished control over the situation, potentially allowing armed actors to fill the void left by Maduro.
The concern is not just about a more authoritarian successor but also about the emergence of armed groups that have already established territorial control. Vigil highlighted the risk of a leader arising who could be “potentially worse than Maduro.”
Analysts, including Jason Marczak from the Atlantic Council, noted that if opposition leaders like María Corina Machado or Edmundo González do not successfully establish a government following Maduro’s departure, a variety of dangerous actors could vie for power.
Key Figures in the Venezuelan Regime
Several prominent figures within the Maduro regime are positioned to seize power should Maduro be ousted. Diosdado Cabello, often regarded as the most formidable figure in the regime, has extensive control over the party’s machinery and propaganda. Cabello was sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury in 2018 for corruption and links to drug-trafficking networks. Analysts fear that a government led by Cabello could consolidate power and further entrench authoritarianism.
Another critical figure is Jorge Rodríguez, president of the National Assembly, who has played pivotal roles in Maduro’s administration. Rodríguez has faced U.S. sanctions for actions undermining democratic institutions. Experts caution that he could implement a more technocratic form of Chavismo that still retains significant authoritarian elements.
Vladimir Padrino López, the defense minister, has been essential in maintaining military loyalty to Maduro. His leadership could lead to a more militarized governance model, merging political authority with military command.
Additionally, Delcy Rodríguez, the vice president, has significant influence over various sectors, including the oil industry, which could further tighten state control if she were to assume leadership. Cilia Flores, the first lady, also remains a critical player in the political landscape, with a history of holding influential positions within the regime.
Lastly, Iván Hernández Dala, head of military counterintelligence, commands the presidential guard and is known for his role in internal repression. His involvement raises concerns about human rights violations, which could escalate under his leadership.
As the situation evolves, experts like Marczak and Vigil emphasize that the actions taken by Washington will be crucial in determining whether Venezuela moves towards a more democratic society or descends into greater chaos. Marczak succinctly noted, “A win isn’t just Nicolás Maduro leaving… A win is actually a transition to democratic forces.”
