A recent global analysis indicates that the incidence of psoriasis, a chronic inflammatory skin condition, is set to increase significantly by 2050. This trend will affect various demographics, including age groups, genders, and geographical regions. The research, led by Linli Liu, MD, from the Suining Central Hospital in China, draws on data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021 to project future cases of psoriasis.
The study emphasizes the importance of understanding the differences in incidence rates across various factors, which has not been thoroughly explored in previous research. “Understanding these variations is critical for informing public health strategies, improving health care access, and supporting early diagnosis worldwide,” Liu and colleagues stated.
To arrive at their conclusions, the investigative team analyzed data on psoriasis from 236 countries collected between 1990 and 2021. They examined prevalence rates, disease incidence, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), categorizing the data by sex, age, and geographic area. Using an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model, they forecasted age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) with 95% prediction intervals.
Forecasting Trends in Psoriasis Incidence
The analysis revealed a moderate rise in the global burden of psoriasis from 1990 to 2021. Specifically, the ASIR for male patients increased from 56.89 to 62.77 cases per 100,000, a growth of 10.3%. In female patients, the ASIR rose from 57.08 to 61.26 cases per 100,000, marking a 7.3% increase. Projections indicate that by 2050, approximately 70 per 100,000 men and 66 per 100,000 women will likely be affected.
The sensitivity analysis, which excluded the 2021 data point, showed a flattening trend in ASIR among males, while the trajectory for females remained consistent with the initial findings. Significant geographic disparities were also noted. For instance, East Asia and sub-Saharan Africa exhibited lower disease prevalence, likely due to limited data availability and potential under-reporting. Conversely, Western Europe and North America reported the highest crude incidence and prevalence rates.
Understanding the Socioeconomic Impact and Future Directions
The study further revealed that incidence rates were similar for boys and girls during childhood and adolescence (ages 5-19 years), but a marked increase was observed among older male subjects. A strong positive correlation between ASIR and the Sociodemographic Index (SDI) was established, indicating that higher-income regions experience a greater burden of psoriasis.
The findings align with previous research, reinforcing the trend of increasing psoriasis incidence. Notably, the study’s results suggest that excluding the 2021 data resulted in diminished projections for males, highlighting the need for further investigation into the underlying causes of sex-specific differences in psoriasis burden.
Overall, this comprehensive analysis underscores the growing global health challenge posed by psoriasis, particularly in high-income regions. The positive correlation between ASIR and SDI suggests that public health initiatives must address these disparities to improve outcomes for affected populations worldwide.
