Three prominent traders known for their roles in predicting the collapse of the US housing market are making significant macroeconomic bets for 2026. Danny Moses, Vinny Daniel, and Porter Collins, who gained fame from the film The Big Short, recently shared their insights on future market trends, indicating a unanimous focus on the evolving landscape of the US dollar and gold.
The trio, former members of the investment firm FrontPoint Partners, now collaborates on a Substack and podcast titled What Are We Doing? They outlined their investment strategies during a recent interview with Business Insider. Each trader expressed a cautious outlook for the upcoming year, despite the stock market’s upward momentum in 2025, largely driven by advancements in artificial intelligence.
Investment Strategies for 2026
Moses, who has long advocated for gold as a cornerstone of his investment strategy, emphasized that he views this precious metal as a critical asset in the face of a declining US dollar. “If I had to express my high conviction macro view for 2026 through one trade, it would be betting on gold,” he stated. He believes that the dollar’s diminishing status as the world’s reserve currency will continue to fuel gold’s growth.
“Between the geopolitics and the sovereign debt levels, I think it just continues to move higher,” Moses added. He pointed out that a weakening US dollar typically aligns with rising gold prices, making gold a vital indicator for economic stability.
Vinny Daniel, co-founder of investment firm Seawolf Capital, echoed Moses’s sentiment regarding the ongoing debasement trade in 2026. “Even though it’s been an incredible trade, we think it’s going to continue, albeit maybe with a little bit more fits and starts, but we think it’ll outperform the S&P,” he remarked. Daniel highlighted the potential for growth in emerging markets, particularly in China and Brazil.
He noted that Brazil, despite having high interest rates, presents an opportunity due to attractive stock valuations and favorable real rates of return. This sentiment reflects a broader belief in the resilience of certain Latin American economies under business-friendly governments.
Market Outlook and Cautions
Porter Collins, a portfolio manager at Seawolf Capital, initially hesitated to pinpoint one high-conviction macro trade for 2026. However, he ultimately aligned with Moses’s view on the US dollar’s decline, suggesting it will continue to lose value against precious metals, with gold being a notable example. “I don’t know if I have a high conviction around it, but I have a general view that’s going to occur,” Collins stated.
Despite their optimism regarding gold, Collins also expressed caution, indicating that current prices may be stretched and that he does not rule out a potential pullback in early 2026. This perspective highlights the complexities and uncertainties traders face as they navigate the market landscape.
As these veteran traders prepare for 2026, their shared insights underscore a significant macroeconomic shift that could influence various investment strategies in the coming years. Their experiences from the past, combined with current market analysis, provide a compelling narrative for investors watching the evolving dynamics of currency and commodity markets.
