A recent report from the Atlantic Council, a prominent foreign-policy think tank, recommends that the 5,000 U.S. Marines and their 1,300 dependents currently stationed in Okinawa should remain there rather than relocate to Guam. The report, released on February 2, 2024, asserts that moving the Marines to Guam would hinder the U.S. military’s ability to deter potential conflicts with China, particularly regarding Taiwan. The report was co-authored by a lieutenant colonel in the Marine Corps and emphasizes the strategic advantages of keeping forces in Okinawa.
According to the Atlantic Council, the Marine facilities currently being developed on Guam, which are expected to cost approximately $6.2 billion, might be better utilized by the Army. Gen. Eric Smith, Commandant of the Marine Corps, previously expressed concerns about the relocation, stating it would be a step in the wrong direction. The Atlantic Council, based in Washington, D.C., plays a significant role in shaping U.S. foreign policy, with nearly a quarter of its $66 million revenue in 2024 coming from government grants, including substantial contributions from the Department of War and the Department of State.
The report advocates for the renegotiation of the U.S.-Japan Defense Policy Review Initiative (DPRI), which initiated the Marine relocation process. This agreement, established in 2006, aimed to reduce the number of U.S. service members in Okinawa due to long-standing political pressures. The authors argue that implementing the DPRI would likely benefit Chinese military planners by removing U.S. forces from strategically crucial locations in the region.
The Atlantic Council’s findings come at a time when China’s military ambitions in the Western Pacific and its claims over Taiwan are intensifying. The report emphasizes that maintaining Marine presence in Japan is vital for effective deterrence in the event of a Taiwan conflict. The authors noted, “Fast-moving Marine Corps troops are better located in Japan, part of the ‘First Island Chain.'”
Negotiations regarding the potential relocation of Marines from Okinawa are complicated. The report suggests that economic incentives, such as exemptions from tariffs imposed during the Trump administration, could be offered to Okinawans to facilitate discussions. It also highlights the importance of U.S. security commitments to Japan, particularly in nuclear defense, to strengthen negotiations.
One significant factor mentioned is the Marine Corps Air Station Futenma in Okinawa, which has faced calls for closure due to noise concerns and historical incidents involving U.S. troops. The Atlantic Council report argues for the reassessment of this base, stating it remains functional and could support both U.S. and Japanese Self-Defense Force operations.
The report notes that the crime rates associated with U.S. military personnel in Okinawa have considerably decreased in recent years, countering some arguments for relocating forces. This change in dynamics emphasizes the need for continued military presence in the region.
In terms of the facilities already established on Guam, the Atlantic Council recommends potentially relocating Army units to these bases. The report suggests that the Army’s larger units could strategically position themselves in the region, given the geographical advantages relative to Chinese missile systems.
Robert Underwood, chairman of the Pacific Center for Island Security and a former U.S. congressional delegate from Guam, commented on the report’s implications. He noted that the discussions about retaining Marines in Okinawa indicate serious consideration within U.S. leadership. Underwood expressed skepticism about the feasibility of maintaining Marines in Okinawa due to the longstanding controversies surrounding this issue. He added that the potential cancellation of the military buildup in Guam adds uncertainty to the island’s strategic role in future conflicts.
Underwood also pointed out that the ongoing dialogue among Japan, the U.S., and Okinawa appears to overlook Guam’s interests. He emphasized the need for local leaders to advocate for clearer communications regarding military relocation plans, allowing communities to engage meaningfully in the decision-making process.
The Atlantic Council’s report underscores the complex interplay of military strategy, local politics, and international relations in the Pacific region. As discussions continue, the fate of U.S. military presence in Okinawa and Guam remains a pivotal topic in U.S.-Japan relations and broader regional security dynamics.
