Poll Shows Cuomo and Mamdani Tightening Race for NYC Mayor

A recent poll indicates that if Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa were to withdraw from the New York City mayoral race, the competition would tighten significantly between Democratic candidate Zohran Mamdani and Independent candidate Andrew Cuomo. Conducted by Gotham Polling in collaboration with AARP, the survey reveals that Mamdani would lead with 44.6% of the vote, while Cuomo would secure 40.7%. Notably, almost 15% of potential voters aged over 50 remain undecided.

In the context of a dynamic race, the poll highlights substantial shifts in voter support. Former Governor Cuomo has seen a rise in his backing among older voters, with an increase of nine points since August. Meanwhile, incumbent Mayor Eric Adams recently exited the race, having previously run as an Independent. Prior to his departure, a September poll indicated Mamdani had a commanding lead over Cuomo, while Adams garnered less than 10% of the vote.

With all three candidates currently in the running, Mamdani is maintaining a double-digit lead over his rivals, according to The New York Post. Key issues influencing the mayoral race include the cost of living, housing affordability, and public safety.

The significance of undecided older voters cannot be understated. Stephen Graves, President of Gotham Polling and Analytics, stated, “The decisive factor in this race may be the older voters who haven’t yet made up their minds. If the contest narrows to two leading candidates, the 50-plus electorate — by far the most reliable voting bloc — will likely determine who becomes the next mayor of New York City.”

Mamdani has faced criticism on social media following a recent photo with Imam Siraj Wahhaj, who has been labeled an “unindicted co-conspirator” in the 1993 World Trade Center bombing that resulted in six fatalities. In a post on X, Mamdani referred to Wahhaj as “one of the nation’s foremost Muslim leaders and a pillar of the Bed-Stuy community for nearly half a century.”

The survey, conducted between October 14-15, 2023, included responses from 1,040 likely voters within New York City. It carries a margin of sampling error of +/- 4% and a confidence level of 95%.

As the campaign progresses, the focus will likely remain on how each candidate addresses the pressing concerns of New Yorkers, particularly the pivotal role of older voters in shaping the outcome of the mayoral election.