Russian officials appear unwilling to halt their nearly four-year invasion of Ukraine, believing they can “outsmart” the United States during ongoing negotiations, according to Kaupo Rosin, the head of Estonia’s foreign intelligence service. In a recent online briefing, Rosin stated that Moscow is engaging in talks with Washington primarily to buy time, asserting that “there is absolutely no discussion about how to really cooperate with the U.S. in a meaningful way.”
Rosin’s comments come ahead of the release of Estonia’s annual security report, based on intelligence gathered from “Russian internal discussions.” While Russian leaders publicly claim they desire a negotiated settlement, Rosin emphasized their lack of willingness to compromise on key demands.
During recent talks brokered by the U.S. between Russia and Ukraine, officials from both sides described the discussions as constructive. Yet, significant progress on critical issues remains absent. According to Rosin, Russian President Vladimir Putin maintains the belief that he can achieve a military victory in Ukraine.
A White House official responded to Rosin’s assertions, highlighting that U.S. negotiators have made “tremendous progress” in efforts to conclude the war. Recently, an agreement was reached in Abu Dhabi, allowing for the release of more than 300 prisoners from both sides. This agreement was seen as a positive step in the ongoing negotiations, according to the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy revealed that the U.S. has set a June deadline for Ukraine and Russia to reach a settlement. Although U.S. President Donald Trump has previously established various deadlines, many have come and gone without tangible results. Fiona Hill, a former advisor to Trump and an expert on Russia, noted that both leaders are likely focused on narratives that portray them favorably—Putin as victorious in Ukraine and Trump as a peacemaker.
Despite Trump’s assertions that Putin is inclined towards peace, Hill remarked that the U.S. president has shown frustration with the Russian leader’s approach to negotiations. Rosin expressed skepticism about why U.S. officials believe Putin genuinely seeks to end the conflict. He noted a discrepancy between the optimistic reports reaching Putin and the harsh realities faced by Russian forces on the ground.
According to Rosin, the higher-ranking Russian officials tend to receive overly positive assessments of military operations, which may lead them to believe they are winning. Conversely, those lower down the chain of command are more aware of the dire situation. Rosin pointed out instances where officials incorrectly reported that Russian forces had captured Ukrainian settlements when this was not the case.
The Estonian intelligence chief suggested that Putin is likely receiving inaccurate information that fuels his belief in a possible military success. He posits that only a catastrophic shift in Russia’s circumstances could prompt a change in Putin’s stance. For now, Rosin believes that the Russian leader is committed to controlling all of Ukraine and is determined to “outsmart everybody.”
Hill echoed this sentiment, suggesting that both Trump and Putin are surrounded by advisors who may be presenting them with information that aligns with their desires. The conflict in Ukraine appears poised to continue unless significant changes occur in either the battlefield dynamics or the political landscape within Russia.
This evolving situation underscores the complexities and challenges inherent in the ongoing negotiations aimed at resolving the conflict in Ukraine. With both sides entrenched in their positions, the path to peace remains fraught with obstacles.
