URGENT UPDATE: The inflation report from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is facing significant delays due to the ongoing government shutdown, causing a critical shift in how economic data will be interpreted. As of today, the October numbers will not be published, leaving analysts to focus solely on the anticipated November figures, which are set to be released later today.
This unexpected development is crucial for market participants, as headline annual inflation is projected to rise slightly to 3.1% for November, up from 3.0% in September. Meanwhile, core annual inflation is expected to remain steady at 3.0%. The implications of these numbers are profound, particularly as they come against the backdrop of government dysfunction and uncertainty.
According to sources, the BLS’s data collection methods still allow for some October statistics to be inferred from online prices and private data sources, despite the lack of direct collection. This means that while October data is officially skipped, some insights could still emerge, adding complexity to the analysis.
Leading analysts have shared their expectations ahead of the report:
– **Bank of America (BofA)** forecasts a 0.23% month-over-month average across October to November, suggesting that the two-month change will show a headline and core CPI inflation of 0.46%. They expect the year-over-year figures to dip slightly from 3.0% in September to 2.9% in November, primarily due to new health insurance information impacting the inflation rate.
– **Goldman Sachs** predicts a 0.21% month-over-month average across the same period, acknowledging that the absence of October data requires analysts to rely on two-month changes. They anticipate upward pressure from tariffs on goods, estimating an impact of +0.08 percentage points on core inflation.
– **Barclays** estimates a 0.29% month-over-month average, emphasizing the reliance on incomplete October data and acknowledging that this report will not provide a “clean” read on inflation dynamics.
As these analysts grapple with the fallout from the shutdown, they warn that the report might be biased lower due to price collection occurring predominantly during Black Friday promotions, which could skew core goods prices.
The urgency of this report cannot be overstated. Investors and policymakers alike are on high alert as they await the inflation numbers that will undoubtedly influence decisions moving forward. With the stakes higher than ever, the potential for volatility in financial markets looms large.
Stay tuned for updates as the BLS releases the November inflation data later today, and prepare for the possible ramifications on economic policy and market conditions. The countdown to the release is underway, and all eyes are on the numbers that could reshape the economic landscape.
